FOX looks even stronger at midseason
Friday, 14th December, 2007
With the writers’ strike now threatening to go deep into mid season, the broadcast networks have every reason to worry that viewer ship will tumble.
Except Fox. Of the Big Four, Fox is the one network that actually stands to gain if the strike wears on.
It also has the least to lose. It was all but assured of winning the season before the strike was called on the power of “American Idol,” the No. 1 show on television, which returns in January and typically lifts the network to No. 1.
With the strike, Fox stands to do even better against the other broadcast networks, armed with “Idol” but also a slew of original midseason shows that will be airing against weakened lineups on the other networks.
And just to lock up No. 1 in 18-49s for the season, Fox this year has the Super Bowl on Feb. 3.
“Unless ‘Idol’ sees large yearly declines, Fox should be in good shape,” says John Spiropoulos, vice president and group research director at MediaVest. “We’re expecting only slight to moderate declines for ‘Idol.’ But that could now be offset by additional viewers due to weak competition from the other networks.”
That’s not to say Fox is not without problems from the strike. It’s running out of top-rated shows like “House,” its No. 1 scripted show, with one original being held for the slot after the Super Bowl. And its popular “24,” set to return in spring, is off the schedule entirely, with too few episodes in the can.
But “Idol” will give Fox the flexibility to compensate. Though set to air two nights each week, it could be stretched to three or four. While “Idol’s” ratings dipped for the first time ever last season, it was still No. 1, ahead of ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars” by some 10 million viewers.
Fox also has a stockpile of animated shows. Media buyers think there may be a dozen or more of “American Dad” and “Family Guy” and a few “Simpsons.”
Fox has a number of fresh midseason shows ready to go, too.
“Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles,” a drama based on the Arnold Schwarzenegger movies, debuts on Jan. 13 with about eight episodes, airing after “Prison Break.” “
The comedy “Unhitched” from filmmakers the Farrelly brothers premieres March 2 and the sitcom “The Return of Jezebel James” with Parker Posey begins March 7.
These new shows will probably do better than they otherwise would have against the other networks’ regular programming. But some of these will also get a boost from promotional spots airing during the Super Bowl, notes David Scardino, entertainment specialist at Rubin Postaer and Associates.
“They have the biggest promotional platform of all with the ‘Super Bowl,’” he says. “When you throw that in, and of course ‘American Idol,’ I wouldn’t bet against them.”
Fox also has returning reality shows like “Hell’s Kitchen,” whose fourth season premieres April 1, and continues to air original episodes of “Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?”
New reality shows include “Moment of Truth,” which straps people into lie detectors. “Truth” premieres on Jan. 23.
Fox’s reality shows and its midseason scripted shows virtually guarantee it a win over its competitors, says Steve Sternberg, executive vice president of audience analysis at Magna Global.
“Obviously, Fox’s ‘Idol,’ which can air multiple times a week, in addition to some of its other successful reality series – not to mention the Super Bowl – make the network best positioned to withstand the strike,” he says
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